From 179716 turns with total weight 179716 and avg. Elo 1972.69 versus 1971.96, move indices first: Weighted Elo averages: PTM 1972.69, Oppts. 1971.96, White 1971, Black 1973.65 Average time used 185.32 and avg. time left 2514.43(of wt. 2514.43) in positions of avg. UEvalEntropy 2.36 i mDelta SwNotDD SwingDD SwRel ProjVal Sigma Actual Proj% Actual% 2sigma range z-score BrierSc LikelySc 1 0.00 0.0000 0.0218 0.0000 78636.01 189.05: 78636.00 43.76%: 43.76% 43.55%--43.97%, z =-0.00 -7.381 -6.177 2 0.33 -0.0399 0.0122 -0.0096 30060.08 151.26: 31244.00 16.73%: 17.39% 16.56%--16.89%, z =+7.83 12.966 13.478 3 0.54 -0.0608 0.0078 -0.0139 16399.64 118.71: 17300.00 9.13%: 9.63% 8.99%-- 9.26%, z =+7.58 8.807 10.064 4 0.69 -0.0744 0.0045 -0.0172 10849.23 98.87: 11034.00 6.04%: 6.14% 5.93%-- 6.15%, z =+1.87 2.362 6.831 5 0.80 -0.0831 0.0023 -0.0193 7877.10 85.33: 7933.00 4.38%: 4.41% 4.29%-- 4.48%, z =+0.66 0.910 7.467 6 0.90 -0.0922 0.0000 -0.0216 6070.33 75.47: 5908.00 3.38%: 3.29% 3.29%-- 3.46%, z =-2.15 -1.871 2.537 7 0.99 -0.0996 -0.0015 -0.0231 4858.04 67.88: 4611.00 2.70%: 2.57% 2.63%-- 2.78%, z =-3.64 -3.395 1.599 8 1.07 -0.1079 -0.0038 -0.0254 3995.63 61.79: 3682.00 2.22%: 2.05% 2.15%-- 2.29%, z =-5.08 -4.839 -0.514 9 1.14 -0.1172 -0.0057 -0.0273 3333.57 56.61: 3020.00 1.85%: 1.68% 1.79%-- 1.92%, z =-5.54 -5.378 -1.697 10 1.20 -0.1261 -0.0078 -0.0294 2807.46 52.09: 2444.00 1.56%: 1.36% 1.50%-- 1.62%, z =-6.98 -6.734 -3.549 11 1.27 -0.1359 -0.0096 -0.0311 2377.69 48.03: 2059.00 1.32%: 1.15% 1.27%-- 1.38%, z =-6.64 -6.384 -1.858 12 1.33 -0.1431 -0.0115 -0.0330 2028.78 44.43: 1703.00 1.13%: 0.95% 1.08%-- 1.18%, z =-7.33 -7.118 -4.090 13 1.40 -0.1515 -0.0128 -0.0343 1726.63 41.06: 1500.00 0.96%: 0.83% 0.92%-- 1.01%, z =-5.52 -5.287 -1.381 14 1.46 -0.1568 -0.0141 -0.0356 1472.23 37.96: 1240.00 0.82%: 0.69% 0.78%-- 0.86%, z =-6.12 -5.912 -2.333 15 1.53 -0.1628 -0.0155 -0.0368 1253.18 35.06: 1185.00 0.70%: 0.66% 0.66%-- 0.74%, z =-1.94 -1.658 3.490 Index fits, x10,000: 0.01243, wtd. 0.01243, diff 2.936e-10; mass 0.2899, wtd. 0.2899; diff 2.936e-10 LogSumPlayedMoves: 2.714; LogSumPlayedMovesBinary: 0.8304; PlogpSumPlayedMoves: 0.3499; Entropy sum: 2.563 Name ProjVal St.Dev Actual; Proj% Actual% 2sigma range z-score BrierSc LikelySc AvgScaledDiffW 32808.374 161.068: 32808.384 0.1826: 0.1826 0.1808--0.1843, z = -0.00, adj -0.00 0.145 0.000 ExpectationLossW 6287.776 28.035: 6403.202 0.0350: 0.0356 0.0347--0.0353, z = -4.12, adj -3.64 0.005 0.000 MoveMatchWtd 78636.010 189.047: 78636.000 43.76%: 43.76% 43.55%--43.97%, z = -0.00, adj -0.00 0.196 0.000 EqValueMatchW[4] 84409.803 189.338: 84074.000 46.97%: 46.78% 46.76%--47.18%, z = -1.77, adj -1.53 0.196 0.000 Combined: adj -0.55 Prediction Tests: LikelihoodWtd 381958.29 871.08: 388493.20 0.0000: 2.1617 0.0000--0.0000, z = +7.50 0.000 0.000 BrierDefectiveWtd 79458.44 156.46: 79141.31 0.0000: 0.4404 0.0000--0.0000, z = -2.03 0.000 0.000 CombinedScoreWtd 79458.44 156.46: 79141.31 0.0000: 0.4404 0.0000--0.0000, z = -2.03 0.000 0.000 LikelihoodMultiWtd 517901.04 866.42: 524706.29 0.0000: 2.9196 0.0000--0.0000, z = +7.85 0.000 0.000 BrierMultiWtd 89040.22 155.45: 88801.54 0.0000: 0.4941 0.0000--0.0000, z = -1.54 0.000 0.000 CombMultiWtd 89040.22 155.45: 88801.54 0.0000: 0.4941 0.0000--0.0000, z = -1.54, adj -1.20 0.000 0.000 PlayedMoveMatchW 55525.44 160.43: 179716.00 30.90%:100.00% 30.72%--31.07%, z = +774.10 0.548 0.000 ProjectionHitsW 82354.97 193.93: 82490.00 45.83%: 45.90% 45.61%--46.04%, z = +0.70, adj +0.57 0.207 0.000 Proj1 (141075.00) 71633.05 174.17: 71252.00 50.78%: 50.51% 50.53%--51.02%, z = -2.19, adj -1.90 0.209 0.000 Proj2 (23523.00) 7476.84 69.41: 7435.00 31.79%: 31.61% 31.20%--32.38%, z = -0.60, adj -0.52 0.209 0.000 Proj3 (7565.00) 1867.61 36.90: 1888.00 24.69%: 24.96% 23.71%--25.66%, z = +0.55, adj +0.48 0.184 0.000 Proj4 (3262.00) 686.60 23.02: 718.00 21.05%: 22.01% 19.64%--22.46%, z = +1.36, adj +1.19 0.169 0.000 Proj5 (1551.00) 289.48 15.20: 312.00 18.66%: 20.12% 16.70%--20.62%, z = +1.48, adj +1.29 0.161 0.000 Proj6 (908.00) 156.59 11.29: 151.00 17.25%: 16.63% 14.76%--19.73%, z = -0.50, adj -0.43 0.136 0.000 Proj7+(1832.00) 244.80 14.44: 734.00 13.36%: 40.07% 11.79%--14.94%, z = +33.89, adj +29.47 0.311 0.000 Name ProjVal St.Dev Actual; Proj% Actual% 2sigma range z-score Top2Wtd 108696.09 185.29: 109467.00 60.48%: 60.91% 60.28%--60.69%, z = +4.16, adj +3.44 Top3Wtd 125095.73 175.59: 126947.00 69.61%: 70.64% 69.41%--69.80%, z = +10.54, adj +8.71 Top3thr0.50Wtd 115963.27 188.09: 117122.00 64.53%: 65.17% 64.32%--64.74%, z = +6.16, adj +5.09 Match-T2Wtd 48575.93 287.93: 47547.00 27.03%: 26.46% 26.71%--27.35%, z = -3.57, adj -2.95 Match-T3Wtd 32176.29 320.70: 30245.00 17.90%: 16.83% 17.55%--18.26%, z = -6.02, adj -4.98 Selection Test ProjVal St.Dev Actual; Proj% Actual% 2sigma range z-score BrierSc LikelySc Delta01-10 8265.92 71.55: 8315.00 4.60%: 4.63% 4.52%-- 4.68%, z = -0.69, engm% = 0.00 3.697 4.028 Delta11-30 13648.54 92.39: 13481.00 7.59%: 7.50% 7.49%-- 7.70%, z = +1.81, engm% = 0.00 2.052 2.429 Delta31-70 12988.97 95.54: 12948.00 7.23%: 7.20% 7.12%-- 7.33%, z = +0.43, engm% = 0.00 3.745 5.449 Delta71-150 7642.97 77.25: 7970.00 4.25%: 4.43% 4.17%-- 4.34%, z = -4.23, engm% = 0.00 9.741 16.565 Error025 29101.82 129.79: 29731.00 16.19%: 16.54% 16.05%--16.34%, z = -4.85, engm% = 0.00 4.745 13.359 Error050 18024.98 110.82: 18693.00 10.03%: 10.40% 9.91%--10.15%, z = -6.03, engm% = 0.00 12.380 24.871 Error100 8600.51 80.76: 9178.00 4.79%: 5.11% 4.70%-- 4.88%, z = -7.15, engm% = 0.00 17.172 37.569 Error200 3570.08 53.68: 3701.00 1.99%: 2.06% 1.93%-- 2.05%, z = -2.44, engm% = 0.00 11.603 44.009 Error400 1599.58 36.66: 1390.00 0.89%: 0.77% 0.85%-- 0.93%, z = +5.72, engm% = 0.00 1.142 38.927 EvalGoesToZero 18033.95 81.65: 18083.00 10.03%: 10.06% 9.94%--10.13%, z = +0.60, engm% = 10.35 9.679 23.179 PawnMove 42817.73 146.43: 40658.00 23.83%: 22.62% 23.66%--23.99%, z = -14.75, engm% = 25.90 -0.149 7.626 KnightMove 26514.57 113.52: 31626.00 14.75%: 17.60% 14.63%--14.88%, z = +45.03, engm% = 16.52 45.422 49.709 BishopMove 27739.53 116.00: 29152.00 15.44%: 16.22% 15.31%--15.56%, z = +12.18, engm% = 15.58 10.111 13.041 RookMove 37555.53 132.91: 34954.00 20.90%: 19.45% 20.75%--21.05%, z = -19.57, engm% = 19.08 -16.462 -13.493 QueenMove 26901.95 109.96: 25776.00 14.97%: 14.34% 14.85%--15.09%, z = -10.24, engm% = 13.80 -6.987 -2.094 KingMove 18186.69 96.95: 17550.00 10.12%: 9.77% 10.01%--10.23%, z = -6.57, engm% = 9.11 -8.298 -7.739 Castling 1855.87 35.23: 3385.00 1.03%: 1.88% 0.99%-- 1.07%, z = +43.40, engm% = 1.49 49.117 49.794 Capture 32652.80 99.98: 41379.00 18.17%: 23.02% 18.06%--18.28%, z = +87.28, engm% = 22.86 43.939 71.152 NonCapture 147063.20 99.98: 138337.00 81.83%: 76.98% 81.72%--81.94%, z = -87.28, engm% = 77.14 43.939 71.210 Promotion 51.56 3.93: 39.00 0.03%: 0.02% 0.02%-- 0.03%, z = -3.20, engm% = 0.02 -0.493 2.388 AdvancingMove 107970.85 166.86: 116315.00 60.08%: 64.72% 59.89%--60.26%, z = +50.01, engm% = 65.33 -8.292 -3.409 RetreatingMove 34414.90 132.57: 29287.00 19.15%: 16.30% 19.00%--19.30%, z = -38.68, engm% = 16.46 -23.602 -18.051 SidewaysMove 37330.25 142.68: 34114.00 20.77%: 18.98% 20.61%--20.93%, z = -22.54, engm% = 18.20 -15.723 -11.395 CheckingMove 5853.63 53.06: 7420.00 3.26%: 4.13% 3.20%-- 3.32%, z = +29.52, engm% = 3.97 31.013 43.978 EngineMove 78636.01 189.05: 78641.00 43.76%: 43.76% 43.55%--43.97%, z = +0.03, engm% = 100.00 -7.362 -6.140 PlayedMove 55525.97 160.43: 179716.00 30.90%:100.00% 30.72%--31.08%, z = +774.10, engm% = 43.76 927.739 1244.112 SamePieceAsPrevMov 4051.35 40.55: 5042.00 2.25%: 2.81% 2.21%-- 2.30%, z = +24.43, engm% = 2.69 7.109 14.908 EqualTopMove 85824.04 187.88: 85089.00 47.76%: 47.35% 47.55%--47.96%, z = -3.91, engm% = 100.00 -10.147 -3.629 UnscaledFalloffW 75776.406 527.739: 73188.705 0.4216: 0.4072 0.4158--0.4275, z = +4.90, adj +4.54 1.458 0.000 ----------